AI SearchApplication of time series forecasting methods for policy purposes on natural rubber prices and production in Thailand (Record no. 6921)
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| 000 -LEADER | |
|---|---|
| fixed length control field | 03777nas|a2200361 a 4500 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20260817163001.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | 100602s2009 th uu|m rtt 0| a1eng d |
| 035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER | |
| System control number | .b12077938 |
| 099 #9 - LOCAL FREE-TEXT CALL NUMBER (OCLC) | |
| Classification number | AIT RSPR no.AE-09-01 |
| 100 0# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Chananya Thimaporn |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Application of time series forecasting methods for policy purposes on natural rubber prices and production in Thailand |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. | |
| Place of publication, distribution, etc. | Pathum Thani, Thailand : |
| Name of publisher, distributor, etc. | Asian Institute of Technology, |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. | 2009 |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION | |
| Extent | 72 leaves : |
| Other physical details | ill. |
| 490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT | |
| Series statement | Research studies project report ; |
| Volume/sequential designation | no. AE-09-01 |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE | |
| General note | Research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| 502 ## - DISSERTATION NOTE | |
| Dissertation note | Research studies project report (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2009 |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | Price fluctuation has always been a major problem of natural rubber, one of the most important agricultural commodities in Thailand. This study aimed to evaluate the most appropriate model and its components for forecasting natural rubber prices at farm in Thailand both on daily and monthly basis. Time series of daily and monthly natural rubber prices were applied to a variety of forecasting techniques namely, Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method, Box-Jenkins methodology (ARIMA), and Combining forecast with Regression technique. It was found that the forecasted results are most accurate when the combining with regression technique is employed. Furthermore the random size of observation and various prediction intervals were also taken into consideration in order to determine the best-fitted size and range that generate minimum errors. In this research, the selected accuracy measure was the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). It is found that the most appropriate range of data used for the daily RSS3 prices forecast is lOO-observations, whereas that of monthly data appears to be 84-observations. The best forecasting time-interval in which the selected techniques can provide the most accurate result is the shortest interval for both daily and monthly prices. However, due to the ease of use, Holt-Winters is recommended rather than ARIMA, which requires high statistically experience. In addition to numerical part, the former and current policies on natural rubber prices and production implemented by Thai government were also examined. It is interesting to point out that price intervention is always the option for any Thai government when natural rubber prices declined. However, it is recommended that the intervention should be done in a short period of time, to urgently help Thai rubber growers and avoid problems concerning market mechanism in long-run. This research methodology is not only applicable to the natural rubber prices but any other commodity as appropriate. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Rubber |
| General subdivision | Prices |
| -- | Government policy |
| Geographic subdivision | Thailand |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Rubber industry and trade |
| Geographic subdivision | Thailand |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Jayasuriya, H.P.W., |
| Relator term | Chairperson |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Salokhe, Vilas M., |
| Relator term | Examination Committee |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Shivakoti, Ganesh P., |
| Relator term | Examination Committee |
| 710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | Royal Thai Government Fellowship, |
| Relator term | Scholarship donor |
| 810 2# - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | Asian Institute of Technology. |
| Title of a work | Research studies project report ; |
| Volume/sequential designation | no. AE-09-01 |
| 856 ## - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Materials specified | Full-Text |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B01272">http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B01272</a> |
| 907 ## - LOCAL DATA ELEMENT G, LDG (RLIN) | |
| a | .b12077938 |
| b | mnait |
| c | u |
| 902 ## - LOCAL DATA ELEMENT B, LDB (RLIN) | |
| a | 260530 |
| 998 ## - LOCAL CONTROL INFORMATION (RLIN) | |
| Operator's initials, OID (RLIN) | 0 |
| Cataloger's initials, CIN (RLIN) | 100602 |
| First date, FD (RLIN) | m |
| -- | a |
| -- | u |
| -- | 0 |
| 945 ## - LOCAL PROCESSING INFORMATION (OCLC) | |
| l | mnait |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) | |
| Koha item type | 20-AIT Publication |
| 909 ## - LOCAL ITEMS USED | |
| Barcode | Barcode : 30050120617203 |
| CREATED | CREATED : 2009-03-01 |
| RECORD Id | RECORD # : i1263668x |
| LPATRON | LPATRON : 1021521 |
| LCHKIN | LCHKIN : 2011-05-18 |
| RENEWALS | # RENEWALS : 0 |
| -- | # OVERDUE : 0 |
| -- | IUSE3 : 4 |
| -- | TOT CHKOUT : 1 |
| -- | TOT RENEW : 1 |
| Withdrawn status | Lost status | Damaged status | Not for loan | Home library | Current library | Shelving location | Date acquired | Cost, normal purchase price | Total checkouts | Full call number | Barcode | Date last seen | Copy number | Price effective from | Koha item type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Available for Loans | Asian Institute of Technology Library | Asian Institute of Technology Library | AIT Publications | 17/08/2026 | 50.00 | AIT RSPR no.AE-09-01 | 30050120617203 | 17/08/2026 | 2 | 17/08/2026 | 20-AIT Publication |