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Quantifying uncertainties in climate projections on hydrologic modeling in the Tamakoshi River Basin, Nepal (Record no. 96673)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field	05122nas a2200433 a 4500
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field	20260818175255.0
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fixed length control field	190318s2016 th uu m rtt 0\| a1eng d
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number	.b1229889x
099 #9 - LOCAL FREE-TEXT CALL NUMBER (OCLC)
Classification number	AIT Thesis no.WM-16-11
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Aryal, Anil
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title	Quantifying uncertainties in climate projections on hydrologic modeling in the Tamakoshi River Basin, Nepal
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Place of publication, distribution, etc.	Pathum Thani, Thailand :
Name of publisher, distributor, etc.	Asian Institute of Technology,
Date of publication, distribution, etc.	2016
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent	80 leaves :
Other physical details	ill. (some col.) +
Accompanying material	1 online resource
490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT
Series statement	Thesis ;
Volume/sequential designation	no. WM-16-11
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note	A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc.	This research was carried out Tamakoshi River Basin, a sub - basin of the Koshi River Basin in the NE of Nepal. This research uses multiple climate and hydrological model so as to simulate future climate and discharge in the basin outlet. Further, the simulated results were analyzed for the quantification of the sources of uncertainty in simulating future climatic variables and discharge at the outlet. Climatic parameters temperature and precipitation of the study area are projected t o change in near ( 2010 - 2039), mid (2040 - 2069) and far (2070 - 2099) future. Both the minimum and maximum temperature are about to change by a significant amount. The maximum temperature is about to rise upto 1.75 0 C under RCP4.5 and upto 3.52 o C under RCP8.5 whereas the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.1 o C under RCP4.5 and 3.73 o C under RC P8.5 by the end of the 21st century. The precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP4.5 and by - 2.44% under RCP8.5 scenarios. Both the minimum and maximum temperature is expected to rise in each three - time window namely near future, mid future and far future whereas precipitation is supposed to decrease in each time window. The major source of the uncertainty for the climatic parameters being the climate model, the change in the climatic parameters are ubiquitous. The discharge in the study area were projected by using two hydrological models namely SWAT and HEC HMS. The projection of the discharge revels that the future discharge in the river is expected to variate by small amount when SWAT is used as the hydrological model and decrease when HEC HMS used as the hydrological model. Under REMO climate model the discharge in the river is expected to variate by large percentile. While projecting the future river flow both the climate models and hydrological model share large amount of uncertainty towards the total uncertainty. The uncertainty because of the hydrological models are more pronounced during the dry days whereas the uncertainty due to climate models are more pronounced during the wet days . Inter - comparison of the impact of the different climate models revels that the REMO climate model predicts higher uncertainty in prediction of the precipitation and eventually the future discharge and maximum probable flood. Thus quantified uncertainty was analyzed and some graphical methods were adopted to communicate the uncertainty results to the planners a developer. Citing the flood as a consequence (fitted using Gumbel method) of the effect of the change in climate, the result of the uncertainty was tried to communicate projecting the expected flood under different return period. The projection revels that the climate model REMO has higher uncertainty in flood projection.
502 ## - DISSERTATION NOTE
Dissertation note	Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element	Hydrologic models
Geographic subdivision	Nepal
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element	Climate
Geographic subdivision	Nepal
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Shrestha, Sangam,
Relator term	Chairperson
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Babel, Mukand Singh,
Relator term	Examination Committee
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Andrias, Sanyogita,
Relator term	Examination committee
700 0# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name	Tawatchai Tingsanchali,
Relator term	Examination committee
710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME
Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element	WEM Sponsorship - Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship,
Relator term	Scholars hip Donor
810 2# - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME
Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element	Asian Institute of Technology.
Title of a work	Thesis ;
Volume/sequential designation	no. WM-16-11
856 ## - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Materials specified	Full-Text
Uniform Resource Identifier	<a href="http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B04421 ">http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B04421 </a>
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942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Koha item type	20-AIT Publication
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Koha item type	40-Archives
909 ## - LOCAL ITEMS USED
Barcode	Barcode : 30050120800247
CREATED	CREATED : 2019-03-18
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Holdings
Not for loan	Home library	Current library	Shelving location	Date acquired	Cost, normal purchase price	Full call number	Barcode	Date last seen	Copy number	Price effective from	Koha item type
Available for Loans	Asian Institute of Technology Library	Asian Institute of Technology Library	AIT Publications	18/08/2026	50.00	AIT Thesis no.WM-16-11	30050120800247	18/08/2026	1	18/08/2026	20-AIT Publication
Available for Loans	Asian Institute of Technology Library	Asian Institute of Technology Library	AIT Publications	18/08/2026	50.00	AIT Thesis no.WM-16-11	30050120800213	18/08/2026	2	18/08/2026	20-AIT Publication
Available for Loans	Asian Institute of Technology Library	Asian Institute of Technology Library	Archives	18/08/2026		AIT Thesis no.WM-16-11	30050120878094	18/08/2026	1	18/08/2026	40-Archives

Quantifying uncertainties in climate projections on hydrologic modeling in the Tamakoshi River Basin, Nepal (Record no. 96673)

AIT

Asian Institute of Technology Library