AI SearchDemand forecasting and long-range planning for crude oil industry in Thailand
Call Number: AIT Thesis no. 600 Material type:
TextSeries: Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. 600Publication details: Bangkok : Asian Institute of Technology, 1973Description: 75 pSubject(s): Online resources: Dissertation note: Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1973 Summary: Crude oil is becoming more and more important in the process of industrialization and economic growth. Today, business conditions are becoming more complex; competitions are sharper; profit margins are declining; cost are rising; resources are becoming scarce or expensive; and rate of changes are increasing. Therefore it is necessary for the oil industry to forecast and plan as accurately as possible so that it can survive and then occupy a favorable position in years to come. The major objective of this study is to develop a rational forecast for the purpose of effective long-range planning for the crude oil industry of Thailand. The production records of crude oil and its products in Summit as well as crude oil throughput in Thailand have been studied in this research. The analysis indicated that the demand for crude oil and its products were highly correlated with the economic parameters. projecting their relationships, a scientific basis for choosing and adjusting the forecasts has been developed. By The final forecasts show that the demands for crude oil and its product will follow an increasing trend in the future years. An internal long-range planning model has been developed. It uses linear programming techniques to help management decision makers shift their attention from the technicalities of planning to long-range goal and risks, to evaluate the effects of various factors on costs and profits, and then to make the possible revisions in policies and programs. Since the internal planning model excludes market activities that cannot be overlooked in running a firm, a competitive model has been developed to overcome the shortcomings. In the competitive planning model, the techniques of Markov chain and dynamic programming are used to provide an analytic framework which will select the optimal strategies for a firm that are consistent with its capabilities, that will meet its competitive situation, and that will maximize the expected long-run profits.
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Asian Institute of Technology Library AIT Publications | AIT Thesis no. 600 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Available | 30050003032165 | |||||||||||||
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20-AIT Publication
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Asian Institute of Technology Library AIT Publications | AIT Thesis no. 600 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 2 | Available | 30050004641105 | |||||||||||||
40-Archives
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Asian Institute of Technology Library Archives | AIT Thesis no. 600 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available | 30050160093919 |
A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering of the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand.
Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1973
Crude oil is becoming more and more important in the process of industrialization and economic growth. Today, business conditions are becoming more complex; competitions are sharper; profit margins are declining; cost are rising; resources are becoming scarce or expensive; and rate of changes are increasing. Therefore it is necessary for the oil industry to forecast and plan as accurately as possible so that it can survive and then occupy a favorable position in years to come. The major objective of this study is to develop a rational forecast for the purpose of effective long-range planning for the crude oil industry of Thailand. The production records of crude oil and its products in Summit as well as crude oil throughput in Thailand have been studied in this research. The analysis indicated that the demand for crude oil and its products were highly correlated with the economic parameters. projecting their relationships, a scientific basis for choosing and adjusting the forecasts has been developed. By The final forecasts show that the demands for crude oil and its product will follow an increasing trend in the future years. An internal long-range planning model has been developed. It uses linear programming techniques to help management decision makers shift their attention from the technicalities of planning to long-range goal and risks, to evaluate the effects of various factors on costs and profits, and then to make the possible revisions in policies and programs. Since the internal planning model excludes market activities that cannot be overlooked in running a firm, a competitive model has been developed to overcome the shortcomings. In the competitive planning model, the techniques of Markov chain and dynamic programming are used to provide an analytic framework which will select the optimal strategies for a firm that are consistent with its capabilities, that will meet its competitive situation, and that will maximize the expected long-run profits.
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