A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies

Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1998

The main purpose of this study is to develop a demand forecasting model and production planning goal programming model to deal with multi-period and multi-product production planning problem for a case of a Flour Mill in China. The model allows management to arrive of desired goals as close as possible. Different kinds of forecasting techniques are analysed and Decomposition Method was selected. Testing with actual data, the model was found to be a good forecasting model by statistical method in that the forecasting errors are normally distributed with mean of zero. A Goal Programming approach has been used in this production planning problem and the best compromise solution is obtained under the given constraints and priority structure with the effective support of PC. Goal Programming model is found to be a better model when compared with existing plan especially in the aspect of reduction in profit and capital inventory investment. Sensitivity analysis on changing the goal priority structure and system parameters let decision maker look through all aspects of the problem and choose the best one suitable for the real condition of the factory.