A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Energy, School of Environment, Resources and Development

Power development in Thailand has multiple objectives apart from energy access, energy security and reliability considerations. They include, encouraging a greater penetration rate renewable energy, embracing rising tide of electric vehicle and adhering to Thailand{u2019}s commitments to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change which intend to reduce greenhouse gas emission by 20 to 25% in 2030 compared to BusinessAs-Usual level. In this context, this study has aimed at providing least cost analysis of Thailand{u2019}s power generation expansion planning scenario with three important considerations. The first is the planning with disaggregated regional analysis, meaning, past studies have only presented nationally aggregated and failed to provide regional specificities while seven regional grids with specific characters make Thailand{u2019}s power system. The second is the emerging climate urgency; while neighboring country, Singapore, has already embarked on carbon pricing, carbon pricing is in minds of the policy makers in Thailand. The third is the rapidly emerging electric vehicle market of which Thailand already has a target of 1.2 million vehicles by 2036. Connected to these are existing Power Development Plan (PDP); this study also aims to explore what these scenarios mean to the vision of PDP of Thailand and to what extent it departs from these scenarios. Thus, OSeMOSYS model is used, which provides a flexible modelling environment allowing to integrate seven regions. Our analysis shows that the technology choices are significantly influenced by the amount of carbon tax. Greater penetration of efficient coal technologies with CCS is viable only at higher carbon tax regime. Battery systems of utility scale are prominent only carbon tax scenarios which couple batteries with solar Photovoltaic for charging in day and releasing overnight. However, fossil fuel, especially coal, will be increasingly exploited for power generation when demand rises due to EV charging. Additionally, it provides evidence that the metropolis has high electricity demand and low potentials for renewable energy, therefore, they have to rely on electricity from others, mainly the Northern region of Thailand. At the same time, North-eastern region will be a key terminal-point between electricity import from Laos and the Eastern region.

Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2020