Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2012

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology

The expected impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture may affect the livelihood of a majority of people in Bangladesh who are engaged in agriculture sector, especially smallholder's farmers. In this research, water poverty is assessed using past and future climate and socio-economic conditions in the northeastern region of Bangladesh. The study also analyzes the historical and future climatic parameters for their impact on agriculture. It fmther assesses the water pove1ty with Water Pove1ty Index (WPI) using climate, socio-economic and management policies of Bangladesh. The secondary data was mostly used in this study and the precipitation effectiveness indices were calculated mostly based on the mathematical definition. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) technique was used to downscale the A2 and B2 SERS scenarios of the future climatic parameters and non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope test were applied for the trends analysis. Both spatial and temporal analyses were carried out taking sub-district as smallest unit for past and future. The alarming increasing trend of minimum temperature was mostly exhibited in rabi season with the trend in slopes of 2.05 and 2.20 °C per 50 years for the upper and lower pait of the basin. The results also revealed the early onset trends with a trend in slope of 12.6-6.3 days and late cession trends with a trend in slope of 3.2-6.6 days per 50 years for the upper to lower pmt of the basin. Water scarcity in rabi season was about 25- 28 percent higher compared to annual water pove1ty. The rapid development of capacity was noticed while severe environmental degradation was observed in the period of 1991-2011. Furthermore, the accessibility and uses of water were increased with the development of capacity whereas the severe environment degradation was observed with the improvement of capacity. Minor in-igation is necessary for Kharif I and Kharif II season to avoid the long dry spells. Groundwater development would be a better water intervention for the rabi season but the proper policy should be taken to avoid the over-exploitation as well as arsenic contamination. Early plantation might be a better adaptation in agriculture for the climate change. The environmental protection is urgently needed to save the ecological imbalance. Furthermore, proper policy should be taken by Bangladesh Government to improve level of income, literacy rate and sanitation system for better water management.