A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering Sustainable Energy Transition

Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2022

Myanmar has significant solar potential, low level of electrification and there is a need to de carbonize the energy system. The global photovoltaic (PV) prices have seen a great decline in the last decade. However, Myanmar{u2019}s large scale solar PV development is insignificant. So, this research aims to study what are the barriers hindering this development in Myanmar, explore in detail the root causes for these barriers, suggest the possible measures to overcome the root cause and provide significant details on some of the major measures to address these barriers. For conducting the study, quantitative and qualitative analysis of survey through purposive sampling was used for data collection and a detailed literature review was done to understand the situation in Myanmar and other countries. A virtual on-line workshop was conducted with relevant stakeholders, and an in depth technical analysis was done regarding the measures. The study first listed the barriers through literature review and identified 24 barriers through discussions and considering the Myanmar context. Then, through an assessment with experts through a survey, the numbers of barriers were reduced to 18. A qualitative (root cause) analysis was then conducted to understand in depth of the barriers in the Myanmar context. Many previous studies have identified the barriers for large scale solar development for other countries, but not assessed the root causes. This resulted in obtaining 4 highly significant barriers, 10 moderately significant and 4 least significant barriers. The most significant four barriers were: limited infrastructure support in technical and maintenance, lack of political stability, lack of human capacity and lack of regulatory framework for encouraging private sector involvement. The study then identified 9 root causes, namely: Lack of government funding to adopt renewable energy (RE) policy; absence of electricity /energy regulatory commission (ERC); single buyer model in the electricity market; high interest rate; difficulties in currency non convertibility; unwillingness of international institutions to invest in the current political climate; reluctance of local banks to invest in RE business; lack of capacity to formulate policies, rules and regulations in the government departments; and inappropriate bid submission deadlines. To validate the barriers and the assessed root causes, a workshop was organized with stakeholders from the government, private sector, and others. Their observations and suggestions on the barriers and root causes were then considered to propose the recommendations to address the barriers. To address the root cause in depth and to provide clear recommendations to the policy makers, four major factors were identified and studied: feed {u2013} in {u2013} tariff (FIT), establishment of ERC, funding for implementing RE policies and estimation of the solar energy potential. {u2022} An assessment of FIT for Myanmar was done considering nine scenarios depending on interest rate and PV efficiency. The levelized cost of energy was calculated to range between $0.0955/kWh and $0.0.12/kWh. The financially viable FIT for the solar developers and the government is suggested at $0.15/kWh, which was found to have 9 years payback period. {u2022} The solar technical potential for the whole country based on specific assumptions indicates that the capacity is within 15,576 MW {u2013} 46,727 MW, which can contribute to reduce GHG emissions from a minimum 5,912 ktCO2eq to maximum 17,737 ktCO2eq. The study clearly has brought out the hinderances for large scale PV power development in Myanmar, and has shown the process of implementing activities to address the barriers through addressing the root causes.