A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management

Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2017

In case of Harirud River Basin, temperature and precipitation plays a significant role for climatology and hydrological regimes. Projected climate change and its effect on upper part of the basin which is covered by snow, puts an important role for operation of Salma dam and having continuous and secure available water for other purposes such as hydropower production. Expected future changes and its output on inflow for generating hydropower at the newly inaugurated hydroelectric power plant is studied in this thesis. The study stands based on three RCMs and two RCPs (CCAM (ACCESS), CCAM (CNRM) and REMOO2009,RCP{u2019}s4.5 and 8.5). Four projecting period from (2021-2099) is included with base period (1986-2005) and their results stands on changes in temperature would be more than the global estimation. Shifting in precipitation timing and changes in rainfall pattern are obvious. HEC-HMS models used for projecting runoff to Salma reservoir. Snow is one of the continuous contributor to streamflow. The reservoir will experience more inflow in future and in the same way some years of less rainfall with less streamflow. HEC-ResSim used for modeling hydropower generation from Salma dam. This runs on availability of water in the reservoir. In the other way, the fuel for running Salma dam depends on availability of rainfall. This plant will have some trends to produce the maximum designed hydroelectricity. The result of this thesis would help water managers and decision makers to be aware of future trends in terms of temperature and precipitation along with production of hydropower to generate a secure and sustainable plan for having a continues streamflow in Harirud River Basin.