A project study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration, School of Management

Project (M.B.A.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014

To be ready for the upcoming events of AEC and general election in 2015, Myanmar has modified in many aspects including the policy matter, organization structure and infrastructure not only to meet the potential opportunity but also to reduce undesirable impacts of the dynamic changes. Especially, as the basic requirement for economic development and stability, the required law and regulation are enacted to foster the financial institution and trade liberalization. Along with the dramatic changes, the foreign currency exchange process is much easier in Myanmar and more stabilized exchange rate can be brought in to the exchange market, which in turn increase s the international trade and external competitiveness of the nation products. Since these factors link and drive each other, the study attempts to identify the key determinants for the exchange rate movement and its relationship with these macroeconomic variables , like a long run and short run causality , from the year 2001 to 2013 by providing the statistical evidences from Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Vector Auto Regression (VAR) in STATA simulation software