A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Energy

Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2007

This thesis analyses peak power demand and electrical energy of short-run and long-run in part of PEA, MEA and EGAT, using different econometric models from method of Engle-Granger and Johansen. Monthly data was used for short-run forecasting and yearly data for long-run forecasting. Several different model specifications were tested. The study shows that GDP and electricity price are of the key variables for long run forecasting while GDP, manufacturing production index and temperature are found to be the significant variables in short-run. The projection for peak power demand and electrical energy during 2008 through 2020 will be forecasted from growth rate scenario of GDP (low, medium and target). If the growth rate of GDP meets to the target (7.5 percent per annum) the average annual growth rate of peak power demand in Thailand will be 4.7 percent per annum while electrical energy demand will be 11.4 percent per annum. If GDP growth rate scenario is medium (6.5 percent per annum during 2008 through 2020) the average annual growth rate of peak power demand in Thailand will be 4.4 percent per annum while electrical energy will be 9.9 percent per annum and if GDP growth rate scenario is low (4 percent during 2008 through 2012 and 3.8% during 2013 through 2020) average annual growth rate for peak power demand in Thailand will be 3.6 percent per annum while electrical energy will be 6.2 percent per annum