A thesis submitted in pa1tial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration, School of Management

Thesis (M.B.A.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1998

The reform of the Taiwan Stock Exchange has been the major goal for the Taiwan Government to achieve in recent years in order to establish Taiwan as an Pacific Asia financial center. A lot of policies to liberalize and internationalize the market have been promulgated and implemented after the Security Exchange Law Amendment. Theoretically, technical analysis will lose its effectiveness if one market conforms to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This study examined the TSE and the effectiveness of technical analysis with both statistical tests and simulation on mechanical rules. A survey was also carried out on both individual investors and market analysts in order to study their investment behavior, their perception on the market and perception toward technical analysis. The conclusion in terms of the weak form efficiency of the TSE was based on the findings from the Serial Correlation Test, Run Test and the Simulation on Mechanical Rules that adopted Stochastics and Moving Average Convergence and Divergence. The evaluation on the effectiveness of Technical Analysis and the comparison of methods in testing the market were also presented in this study.