Threat of climate change impacts in Bangladesh is appalling. Ganges Tidal Floodplain is the largest agro ecological zone in the country facing hazards like water logging, salinity intrusion, sea level rise, flood and cyclones. In order to understand the difference in farmers {u2019} perception of climate change and its influence on crop production and variation in adaptation measures across the region, the study was conducted taking 220 small farm households from two districts Satkhira (interior zone) and Patuakhali (exterior zone) using various data collection tools such as FGDs, HH survey, KIIs and field. The analysis of the result shows that significant climate change exist in both area and farmers in both area perceive change in climatic indicators (rainfall and temperature) efficiently. In both area, majority farmers reported an increase in summer temperature (56.3% in Satkhira and 75.9% in Patuakhali) and length of summer (79.5% in Satkhira and 46.3% in Patuakhali). Moreover, the farmers also perceived a decrease in rainy days (58% in Satkhira and 71.3% in Patuakhali) but an increase in rainfall intensity (91.1% and 64.8% in Satkhira and Patuakhali respectively). This result is also found from meteorological trend analysis where annual average temperature in both area is increasing (Kendall {u2019} s tau = 0.11 in Satkhira and 0.287 in Patuakhali) while annual total rainfall is decreasing (Kendall {u2019} s tau = -0.06 in Satkhira and -0.16 in Patuakhali). However, notable variability in rainfall pattern has been identified as the major problem in both area. In Patuakhali (exterior zone), the farmers identified that monsoon is delayed (87%) and post monsoon rainfa ll is increasing (88%). According to the farmers, late rainfall caused by delayed monsoon coupled with poor water drainage (ranked 3 rd in Perception Index, PI) is the major reason for delayed production of winter vegetables (Ranked 5 th in PI). Since winter temperature is increasing, farmers are not able to cultivate winter vegetables as the soil is still wet. Moreover, due to delayed Aman harvest and shorter winter (ranked 4 th in PI), cultivation of Boro rice is decreasing significantly in the area (ranked 1 st in PI). In Satkhira, 100% of the farmers reported rainfall to have an inconsistent, erratic and unevenly distributed pattern over the past decade. Interestingly, despite having decreasing trend of total rainfall amount, the intensity of rainfall specifically, during post monsoon season, is increasing. Sudden and unexpected rainfall not only affect the plantation and harvest of plants (ranked 1 st in PI) but also more likely to introduce alien diseases to the crops (ranked 3 rd in PI) the cure to which takes considerable time to incur any profit. Majority farmers in both areas reported high impact of climate change on crop production in the study area. The number of farmers perceiving high impact on crop production is more in Patuakhali (77.8%) than in Satkhira (62.5%). Application of fertilizer and pesticides has been cited as the most practiced adaptation by households in both areas. But there are also variations in adaptation between two regions despite being in the same agro ecological zone. Households in Sakthira prioritized rice fish farming (ranked 2 nd in WAI) while households in Patuakhali prioritized adjusting planting dates (ranked 2 nd in WAI) and high value cash crop (ranked 4 th in WAI) as more preferable options. Majority farmers in Satkhira had medium adaptation (88.4%) while majority farmers in Patuakhali had medium (56.5%) to low (43.5%) adaptation. Households in Patuakhali lagged behind the households in Satkhira in terms of adaptive capacity potentially due to having less access to information and less training experiences. Rigorous and more scientific research is needed in the study area in order to obtain detailed impact on crop of climate change and in order to formulate a context and location specific planned adaptation policies for the farmers.

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Climate Change and Sustainable Development

Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2018