A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement forthe degree of Doctor of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development

Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2010

The main objective of this study is to analyze effects of regional energy resource development and trade and CO2emission reduction strategywithin the five Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) countries (i.e., Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam except China)during 2010-2035. For this purpose, a MARKAL-based integrated energy system model of the five GMS countries called G̳MS-MARKAL{u2018} model has been developed to examine the benefits of regional energy resource development for meeting the energy demand of these countries. Based on the results of the energy resource development and trade within the GMS, assessments of macroeconomic consequences and distribution of general equilibrium effects of power importand carbon pricein Thailand are analyzed. A multi-sector, social accounting matrix (SAM) based recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium framework of Thailand called T̳HAI-CGE{u2018} model has also been developed for thesetwo purposes.The study analyzesbenefits of energy resource development within the five GMS countries in terms ofenergy supply mix, energy system cost, energy security and environment. The comparative study of results of the base case (i.e., restricted trade caseamong the five GMS countries) and the unrestricted energy resources development and trade (i.e., unrestrictedtrade case) shows that the unrestrictedtrade casewould benefit the five GMS countries. By 2035, the total integrated regional energy system cost and CO2emission of the GMS except China is found to be less by 18% and 5%, respectively than the corresponding figures in the base case. Further, diversification sources of energy supply (SWI indices) of the five GMS countries as a whole is found to increase from 1.46(in the base case) to 1.50(in the unrestrictedtrade case) whereas the net energy improve ratio would decrease from 65% (in the base case) to 53% (in the unrestrictedtrade case). Among the five countries, Laos and Thailand would benefit from the unrestricted regional energy resources development program in terms of relatively lower CO2emission while Myanmar would have the highest increment in CO2emission. Further, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam wouldhave greater diversification of sources of energy supply whereas Laos, Myanmar and Thailand would have lower fossil fuel dependency. It is also found that Laos and Myanmar would utilize more hydropower potentials for export and would improve their balances of energy trade.The study also examines the effects of a climate policy of CO2emission reduction target as compared to that in the unrestrictedtrade case. By 2035, it is found that imposition of 5% CO2 emission reduction on each country (i.e., individual emission reduction targetcase) would not significantly affect the integrated energy system cost (0.5%) of the GMS region however it would improve the diversification sources of energy supply. Further,the energy system cost of Laos is found to increase most(11%), followed by the systems costs of Myanmar and Cambodia. The sources of energy supply in Thailand and Vietnam are more diversified but their energy systems costs would slightly increase (0.2%)fromthatsetting of emission restriction. The increase in power imported from Myanmar and Laos would significantly help Thailand to reach its emission reduction targets. This indicates that the setting of emission reduction target tends to increase volume of power trade within the region. Further, it is seen that the fossil fuel supply ratio of the integrated energy system would reduce from 61% (in the unrestrictedtrade case) to 58% (inthe individual emission reduction targetcase). Biomass-based power generation technology would be the most cost effective option for the energy systems of Cambodia, ivLaos and Thailand,