AI SearchAnalysis of historical and future climate of Afghanistan
Call Number: AIT Thesis no.WM-14-13 Material type:
SeriesSeries: Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-14-13Publication details: Pathum Thani, Thailand : Asian Institute of Technology, 2014Description: 103 leaves : ill. (some col.)Subject(s): Online resources: Dissertation note: Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014 Summary: Climate change may put challenge on the livelihood of Afghanistan{u2019}s people. The geographical location of country is mountainous and arid this make vulnerable due to changing climate. To address the issues,the trend analysis of past maximum, minimum temperatures and precipitation calculated by Mann-Kendall test. Temperature trend indicates the large range warming, the Tmax and Tmintrend obtained0.05 C̊/Yr and 0.07 C̊/Yr over period of 1961-2012. At the seasonal basis the autumn experienced more warming and followed by summer and spring. The precipitation decreasing trend not significant. However, the seasonal pattern of precipitations showed decreasing at spring and increasing at the summer.And future climate signals analyzed by SimCLIM climate model with ensemble of 40 GCMsunder Representative concentration Pathways (RCP).Thefuture projection ofTmaxin context of mid climate sensitivity underRCP2.6 the positive trend is projected 1.13 C̊, 1.41 C̊ and 1.43 C̊, for case of RCP 4.5 projected rate of increasingranges 1.18 C̊, 2.18 C̊ and 2.56 C̊, also forworse scenario RCP 8.5 the rate of increasingprojected 1.44 C̊,3.28 C̊ and 5.45 C̊ early, mid and late projections time respectively. However, TminunderRCP2.6 scenarioprojectedto increase1.03 C̊, 1.29 C̊ and 1.3 C̊, under RCP 4.5 projected increase are ranges 1.13 C̊, 1.99 C̊ and 2.34 C̊, furthermore, atworstscenario RCP 8.5 the rate of warming projected 1.30 C̊, 3.0 C̊ and 4.98 C̊ at the periodof 2030, 2060 and 2090respectively. Theprecipitation future projection showed negative trend but the values of decreasing are significant for Helmand river basin for instance, the percentage of change at Helmand and Kandahar stations showed decreasing rate 3.80%, 4.70% and 4.80% for 2030s, 2060s and2090s respectively for RCP2.6. Under RCP4.5 scenario projected decreasing trend of 4.20%, 4.80% and 8.50% for 2030s, 2060s and 2090s respectively. UnderRCP8.5 scenario the rate decreasing are projected 4.90%, 11% and 18.20% for 2030s, 2060s and 2090s respectively. However, the stations are located in northern river basin shows positive trend of precipitation but not significant
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Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014
A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master ofSciences inWater Engineering and Management
Climate change may put challenge on the livelihood of Afghanistan{u2019}s people. The geographical location of country is mountainous and arid this make vulnerable due to changing climate. To address the issues,the trend analysis of past maximum, minimum temperatures and precipitation calculated by Mann-Kendall test. Temperature trend indicates the large range warming, the Tmax and Tmintrend obtained0.05 C̊/Yr and 0.07 C̊/Yr over period of 1961-2012. At the seasonal basis the autumn experienced more warming and followed by summer and spring. The precipitation decreasing trend not significant. However, the seasonal pattern of precipitations showed decreasing at spring and increasing at the summer.And future climate signals analyzed by SimCLIM climate model with ensemble of 40 GCMsunder Representative concentration Pathways (RCP).Thefuture projection ofTmaxin context of mid climate sensitivity underRCP2.6 the positive trend is projected 1.13 C̊, 1.41 C̊ and 1.43 C̊, for case of RCP 4.5 projected rate of increasingranges 1.18 C̊, 2.18 C̊ and 2.56 C̊, also forworse scenario RCP 8.5 the rate of increasingprojected 1.44 C̊,3.28 C̊ and 5.45 C̊ early, mid and late projections time respectively. However, TminunderRCP2.6 scenarioprojectedto increase1.03 C̊, 1.29 C̊ and 1.3 C̊, under RCP 4.5 projected increase are ranges 1.13 C̊, 1.99 C̊ and 2.34 C̊, furthermore, atworstscenario RCP 8.5 the rate of warming projected 1.30 C̊, 3.0 C̊ and 4.98 C̊ at the periodof 2030, 2060 and 2090respectively. Theprecipitation future projection showed negative trend but the values of decreasing are significant for Helmand river basin for instance, the percentage of change at Helmand and Kandahar stations showed decreasing rate 3.80%, 4.70% and 4.80% for 2030s, 2060s and2090s respectively for RCP2.6. Under RCP4.5 scenario projected decreasing trend of 4.20%, 4.80% and 8.50% for 2030s, 2060s and 2090s respectively. UnderRCP8.5 scenario the rate decreasing are projected 4.90%, 11% and 18.20% for 2030s, 2060s and 2090s respectively. However, the stations are located in northern river basin shows positive trend of precipitation but not significant
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