Capstone Project (B.Sc.)-Asian Institute of Technology, 2017

A capstone project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering Civil And Infrastructure Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology

Climate change has a various degree of impacts on various sectors and scales Understanding likely future climatic scenario may help develop strategies to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change. This study therefore aims to project future precipitation and temperatures of Sagaing; one of the famous city in Myanmar. It uses future precipitation and temperature from two regional circulation models (RCMs), namely, ACCEES1 and CNRM-CM5-CSIROCCAM for the 2050s and 2080s periods un- der two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Biases in the RCM-driven data were collected using three methods (i.e., Linear Scaling, Variance Scaling, and Local Intensity Scaling) based on observed data for the period of 1983-2012 collected from Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Myanmar. Results show variations in projected rainfall and temperature for different RCMs. Linear Scaling method performed relatively better for correcting bias in temperature data and Local Intensity Scaling method for rainfall. As per the results, future maximum temperature is projected to increase to 38-45oC in April and minimum temperature is projected to increase from 14oC to 19oC (for both scenarios). The precipitation is projected to increase 7.2mm in the 2050s and 6mm in the 2080s above the baseline under RCP4.5. September is expected to receive maximum projected rainfall under both scenarios