A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering of the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand

Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1977

The study reported herein is concerned with a procedure for determining the optimal plan for the expansion of the nuclear generation facilities of the Taiwan power system over a 20-year period. Production cost estimation is based on probability simulation methods. Dynamic programming is formulated for the problem over the period of study. In order to treat uncertainty in a systematic manner, the approach yields a step-by-step minimum cost for each year. The primary advantage of the procedure is the ability of combining the constraints of system reliability with the determined cost of production in a fast and efficient way. Together with a reduced state fashion in the dynamic programming formulated, the procedure allows the rapid calculation of the optimal expansion plan. The computational features are described and the expansion planning of the Taiwan power system has been used to demonstrate a practical application.