A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Degree of Master of Science

Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1991

The Northern Region of Taiwan has had in prosperous growth during t he past years, but the fruit of development is not spread evenly to the whole region. The benefit of development is over concentrated in the capital city, and the issue of balanced development among the fringe areas is neglected by policy makers and planners. This situation will harm the further development for both the central area and fringe areas of t he Metropolitan area in the long run. The gap of living standard among these cities is increasing, furthermore, this gap is worsened by inefficient administration in fringe areas. Since 1970, Keelung city suffers from declining population, industrial desertion, and blighted infrastructures. Similar to many port cities located in hilly land, Keelung City confronted the problem of decline due to geographical l imitation. We try t o identify which is t he critical element leading to t he decline. In order to know the growth factors within the Metropolitan area, firstly, a time series analysis from the 18th century is used for this study. Then, a comparison study of population change, economic activity, and physical environment among these jurisdictions is used to compare the change and t he trend of growth in the Metropolitan area from 1975 to 1989. Multivariate analysis (principal component analysis) is adopted to quantify these changes by a more detailed set of data. Finally, some strategies about revitalizing the suggested at both national and local government level . framework for the Metropolitan area and implementation proposed in t he past are also recommended in the last part the declining city are I n administration of several plans of this study.