A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the d egree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management

Groundwater is an essential resource of water for irrigation and household use especially in area where surface water quality does not fulfill the demands. However, its sustainability is threatened by climate change and Land cover change. Estimation of gro undwater recharge for Lower Ravi river basin in context of climate change and Land use change is conducted in this research. Initially the trend analysis of historical climate was carried out using RClimdex software showing that climatic trends are changin g. The generation of future climate parameters including rainfall and temperature was the next step. Three GCMs and two RCP scenarios were considered. The historical climate data along with basic inputs were used to develop a calibrated and validated hydro logical model named SWAT for the study area. The current land cover was used to generate future land cover in the area using CA - Markov. Four scenarios namely Baseline, Climate Change, Land Cover change and combined land cover and climate change were develo ped for quantification of groundwater recharge in the study area. The annual temperature is expected to increase by 2.1 0 C and 3.7 0 C respectively for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2100. The annual mean precipitation is also expected to increase by 2.45% and 4.47 % for two RCPs respectively. The groundwater recharge under climate change scenario is going to increase by 8% with a seasonal shift. Major impacts on recharge were seen through Land cover change which causes a decrease in recharge to 38%. The combined imp acts of climate and land use change are reduction in recharge to about 15%. Land cover change is going to impact groundwater recharge more critically than climate change

Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016