A research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development

Research Studies Project Report (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1990

Hous ehold energy demand forecast for Shanghai jn year J 995, 2000 and 2015 is made , by means of MEDEE-S model, with respect to four scen arios of different environment in economic growth and energy policy. Household en ergy demand will, compared to base level in 1988, increase by 10% in 2000 and grow by the range from 10% to 70% in 2015 in both extreme depending on different pat.tern of growth in energy intensive use of space heat ing and air conditioning in the scenario chosen. Household energy demand is very sensitive to variation in economic growth. Of which, comb coal substituiton, featured by dominant share of t own gas and LPG where n o comb coa l is used in 2015, could achieve great energy conservation as expected, while town gas and electricity demand could increase consistently before 2000 and show quite volatile pattern of growth in energy intensive use of s pace heating and air conditioning due to different economic growth in the scenario chosen. But sen sitivity is not exten ded to change of energy efficiency according to the scen ario design. Data collection for this kind of study using MEDEE-S model which assesses energy demand in disaggregation approach is summarized. Methodology of designing household energy demand scenarios in two independent stages of economic growth and energy policy is discussed.