A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, School of Engineering and Technology

Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1987

This thesis develops a computer software package which can be installed on microcomputers, in order to implement a comprehensive mathematical model for evaluating the potential success of rainfed agriculture in various region s . The study deals with the Water Balance Analysis based on the Simulation of daily rainfall and daily potential evapotranspiration . In the Simul at ion , a Markov chain model with two stages where rainfall amounts on wet day fire presented by a shifted lognormal distribution was employed for daily da ta generation . The parameters used in this submodel are computed from historical rainfall da t a fil e. Th e Thomas-Fie ring mod e l was used to generate the daily evapotranspiration. Th e computer programs needed in the model were written in Fortran with sufficient documentation to help the end- user in app lying the package. Several important factors influencing the potential success of rainfed agriculture were provided by the package. Th ese will he l p the use r in determining suitable planting dates for various crops , supplementary water requirement as well as drainage requirement . Moreover, the package also provides the user with the useful probabilities of daily rainfall condition.