03930cas|a2200433 i 4500 20260818222503.0 240699s1981 th yzm rtt 00| a1eng d .b1004260x AIT Diss. no. IE-81-01 Chin, Wai-hing A stochastic network approach for technological forecasting and analysing optimal level of unpackaging for technology transfer Bangkok : Asian Institute of Technology, 1981 138 p. Dissertation ; no. IE-81-01 Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1981 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology A stochastic. network technique has been developed for forecasting regarding large complex technological systems. This technique is based on the principle of combining the component forecasts to give the overall composite forecast. The whole system under forecast is first decomposed in two dimensions: one physically based which is decomposed into different levels of sub-systems and parts, the other activity based which is decomposed into different projects and activities. Forecasts are then prepared for each components for which data or experts' opinions are available and reliable. Then the overall forecast can be obtained by combining the component forecasts into a composite forecast. The developed technique is based on an integrated approach which incorporates both the normative and exploratory approaches to technological forecasting through a stochastic network system. For developing countries, the technology needed may be acquired through local R&D programs, transfer from abroad or a mixture. A model based on stochastic network has been developed for evaluating the proper way to transfer/develop the needed technology. Different alternatives of techno logy transfer, each with different levels of unpackage, can be represented by some variations in the structure and parameters of the stochastic networks. Three major factors, namely, the indigenous involvement, the time to complete the transfer process, and economic benefits, are considered in this model. Evaluations obtained through the synthesis of those networks can provide valuable information for the decision maker. A case study on the electrical vehicle development program in Taiwan has been carried out. Four different alternatives, each with different levels of unpackage to transfer/develop the needed technology, has been studied in the illustration. Technological forecasting Statistical methods Technology transfer Sharif, M. N., Chairperson Adulbhan, Pakorn, Examination Committee Huynh, Ngoc Phien, Examination Committee Turoff, Murray, Examination Committee Taiwan Power Company, Scholarship Donor Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. IE-81-01 Full-Text http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B21422 .b1004260x mnait y 241010 2 951012 m a y 2 mnait mnait mnarc 20 40 Barcode : 30050003059028 CREATED : 1995-10-13 RECORD # : i10030153 LPATRON : 1012751 LCHKIN : 2000-06-23 # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 0 TOT CHKOUT : 1 TOT RENEW : 0 Barcode : 30050002916467 CREATED : 1995-10-13 RECORD # : i10030165 LPATRON : 0 LCHKIN : - # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 0 TOT CHKOUT : 0 TOT RENEW : 0 Barcode : 30050160003025 CREATED : 2016-02-16 RECORD # : i12883190 LPATRON : 0 LCHKIN : - # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 0 TOT CHKOUT : 0 TOT RENEW : 0 112567 112567 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnait 2026-08-18 10.00 0 AIT Diss. no. IE-81-01 30050003059028 2026-08-18 22:25:03 2 2026-08-18 20 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnait 2026-08-18 10.00 0 AIT Diss. no. IE-81-01 30050002916467 2026-08-18 22:25:03 1 2026-08-18 20 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnarc 2026-08-18 0 AIT Diss. no. IE-81-01 30050160003025 2026-08-18 22:25:03 1 2026-08-18 40