03741nas a2200265 a 450000500170000000800410001703500150005810000210007324501210009426000670021530000560028249000270033850001330036552025090049850200580300765000400306565000270310570000470313270000350317970000480321471000530326271000350331581000590335085600660340920260817161514.0180704s2016    th uu m rtt   0|  a1eng d  a.b122037621 aAli, Mohib Ullah10aAdaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change scenarios in Gujranwala District of Punjab, Pakistan  aPathum Thani, Thailand :bAsian Institute of Technology,c2016  a117 leaves :bill. (some col.) +e1 online resource1 aThesis ;vno. WM-16-30  aSubmitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management  aClimate Change poses an alarming threat to agriculture and global food security.Rice production in Pakistanholds an extremely important position inagricultureand the nationaleconomy. SinceDistrict Gujranwala has the largest production of rice in Punjab, Pakistan therefore itis need of the hour to assess the impact of climate change on productivity of rice and lessen its impact by use  of agricultural adaptation measures  in  Gujranwala  District. This  study  focuses  on assessing impact of future climate on rice production and the evaluation of different agricultural adaptation measuressuggested  by  farmers  themselvesto  minimize  the  impacts  of  climate  changeusing DSSAT Model. Future climate scenariosunder outputs of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5for the periods 2016-2040,  2041-2070  and  2071-2099  were  developed  using  three  GCMs  CCSM4,  MIROC5 and  MPI-ESM-MR  and  downscaled  using  Quantile  Mapping  Bias  Correction Technique.  The minimum and maximum temperature of the district is projected to increase by 0.975 to 3.625°Cand  0.65  to  3.2°C  respectively  infuture.  Similarlythe  annual  precipitation  is  expected  to decrease by 6%to 12%.The model DSSAT was used to simulate the impact of future  climates on yield. Results show that climate change will reduce yield from 1.09 to 26% for both scenarios and all time periods, relative to baseline yield. This decrease of yield can be offset by opting for various  agricultural  adaptation  measures.  Onthe  basis  of  famer  survey  it wasfound  that  the practisedagricultural  adaptation  measures  of  proper  management  of  nutrients,  irrigation,  use  of alternate rice variety and shifting the planting dates have been helpful in mitigating the impact of climate change.  Late  transplanting  of  rice  increases  the  yield  by  9.9%  to  22.2%  in  future. Increasing  the  fertilizer  application  rate  enhances  the  yield  from  3.73%  to  26.96%  under  future climate. Delaying the time of application of fertilizer increases the  yield from 4.33% to13.04% in future.  Shiftingto  alternate  varieties  also  increases  the  yield  in future.  DeficitIrrigation increases the yield from 2.51% to 22.2% for the future. Therefore based on these findings change in  planting  date,  deficit  irrigation,  proper  nutrient  management  and  adopting  to  alternate  rice cultivars can be beneficial for the adaption of rice cultivation under climate change scenarios in Gujranwala District of Punjab, Pakistan.  aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016 0aCrops and climatezPakistanxPunjab 0aRicexClimatic factors1 aJourdain, Damien,eExamination committee  1 aShrestha, Sangam,eChairperson1 aAndriyas, Sanyogita,eExamination committee2 aPunjab Irrigation Department,eScholarship donor2 aWorld Bank,eScholarship donor2 aAsian Institute of Technology.tThesis ;vno. WM-16-30  3Full-Textuhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B04439