02585nam a2200241   450000500170000000800410001703500150005810000310007324500570010426000520016130000140021349000270022750001430025450200580039752015620045565000320201770000330204970000450208270000450212771000470217281000590221985600650227820260817173218.0230698         th                  eng    a.b101485411 aGillani, Syed Zaheer Ahmed10aCommodity market dynamics case of cotton in Pakistan  aBangkok :bAsian Institute of Technology,c1982  avi, 88 p.1 aThesis ;vno. IE-82-05  aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering School of Engineering and Technology  aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1982  aCotton is the most important cash crop of Pakistan. A persistent  cyclical movement is observed in the cotton market of the country.  Thesedayes the market is experiencing a sharp downward trend which seems to be uncontrol able. This report discusses how the dynamics of cotton market in Pakistan are generated. The structure of the system is studies and a simulation model is prepared and tested in a system dynamics framework. The model provides a concise picture of the cotton market decision mechanisms and furnishes a powerful tool for analysis of alternative policies designed to improve the stability of the system.  The experiments with the model have proved the existence of a long term cycle of 18 years. These cycles are responsible for the stagnation currently being experienced by the cotton market in Pakistan. The long term cycles are explained in terms of fixed capital investment decision. It is found that the short term cycles of four years are not due to random factors or internal supply relationships of the system. In default, these seem to be caused by the business cycles in the international cotton market. The reason of failure of Pakistan government policies is found to be the wrong hypothesis whereby random factors such as rains, floods, etc., and internal market structure are responsible for short term cycles. The generally adopted policies of price fixation and technological advancement are tested with help of the model. It is found that these policies, instead of stabilizing the system, create even more instability.   0aCottonxPakistanxMarketing1 aSaeed, Khalid, eChairperson1 aTang, John C.S., eExamination Committee1 aClarke Harry R., eExamination Committee2 aGovernment of Denmark, eScholarship Donor2 aAsian Institute of Technology.tThesis ;vno. IE-82-05  3Full-Textuhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B21326