TY  - SER
AU  - Klairung Kositthanasarn
AU  - Marpaung,Charles O.P.
AU  - Weerakorn Ongsakul,
AU  - Singh,Jai Govind
ED  - PEA,
ED  - Asian Institute of Technology Education Cooperation Project,
ED  - Royal Thai Government Fellowship,
TI  - Financial risk assessment of biomass power plant: a case study of Sungnoen Rice Husk Power Plant in Nakornratchasima
T2  - Thesis
PY  - 2011///
CY  - Pathum Thani, Thailand
PB  - Asian Institute of Technology
KW  - Biomass energy
KW  - Risk assessment
KW  - Thailand
KW  - Nakonratchasima
N1  - A research submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the  degree of Master of Science in Energy; Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2011
N2  - This  research  presents  the  risk  analysis  approach  for  the  financial  evaluation  of  biomass  power plant a case study of Sungnoen rice husk power plant in Nakornratchasima. The risk  analysis  is  applied  by  using  Monti  Carlo  Simulation  (MSC)  approach  which  uses  random  variables with a specific probability distribution. The program called 3@risk3 has been used  in the study. This  study  analyzed  seven  cases  representing  different  combination  of  the  uncertainty  factors, namely:  plant  factor,  fuel  cost (rice  husk),  maintenance  cost  and  discount  rate.  Both  certain  and  uncertain  factors  are  involved  in  the  evaluation  of  biomass  power  plant  projects. Each case results the net present value (NPV) probability function. The results of the risk analysis  in term of the NPV are compared  with  the base  case.  Each  case  reveals  the  different  effect  on  the  NPV.  Plant  factor  which  is  internal  factor  has  highest  effect  on  the  project  NPV.  In  contrast,  Discount  rate  that  is  external  factor  has  lowest  affect.  PEI  who  is  continue  the  project  could  aware  both  internal  and  external  factor, these  risk  affect  and  unexpected  results  which  are  shown  by  this  study.  The  probability of the NPV is important to make decision that the project attractive or not. NPV  of  the  studied  rice  husk  power  plant  project  would  have  negative  value  during  the  first  six  year  of  the  project,  which  implies  that  the  return  on  investment  cannot  be  made  under  this  period. From  year  of  7th onwards,  NPV  of  the  studied  rice  husk  power  plant  project  would  have  positive  value  rendering  return  on  investment. Moreover,  it  is  crucial  for  project  developer  to  formulate  an  emergency  plan  when  there  is  unexpected  situation.  Therefore, this project is always attractive
UR  - http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B02256
ER  -