a system dynamics analysis based on a study of eight selected Asian countries Nguyen Luong Bach creator Saeed, Khalid Chairperson Fujiwara, Okitsugu Examination Committee Nielsen, Jens Moller Examination Committee Webster, Douglas R. Examination Committee Andersen, David F. Examination Committee Australian Government Sxholarship Donor AIT Alumni Association (AIT AA) Sxholarship Donor text series technical report th Bangkok Asian Institute of Technology 1992 continuing eng 240 leaves The agricultural production systems of most developing countries are characterized by unsustained per capita food production and widespread agricultural land resources degradation, with inequality of access to food resources and food production by the various cross-sections of the population. Over the past three decades, a variety of agricultural development programs have been proposed and implemented on various scales. Most of these programs focused on increasing aggregate production; some were intended for improving the condition of the poor; while only few were devoted to conserving the agricultural resources. While the issue of food adequacy at both national and lower levels has long been raised and paid ample attention in the economic development literature, the issue of environmental impact of agriculture has only recently been addressed. Reviewing the literature in food policy reveals that various relationships inherently reside in complex food systems, yet past studies in the field are largely compartmentalized, hence they are inadequate to deal with the problems stated above, which concern food production unsustainability, widespread environmental degradation and inequality of access to food resources and food produced. This thesis attempts to develop a holistic framework for integrating agriculturally socio-economic and environmental dimensions, by reconciling theoretical knowledge compartmentalized in the literature and an empirical context of eight selected Asian countries. The structural mechanisms responsible for creating undesired goals (food inadequacy and agricultural resources degradation) are examined, then implications for agricultural development and sustainability are derived by experimentation with the system dynamics model developed in the context of the eight studied. The analysis is confined to considering only the economic and environmental factors arising out of rational, although bounded, decisions made by the two sectors (corporate and self-employed) of a rural economy. The rational decisions made by the former are based on the principle of maximizing profits while maximizing consumption is the criterion for making any decisions by the latter. Political and cultural factors, and urban growth are beyond the scope of this analysis, -iii- while the environmental impacts of agricultural production activities are considered only at the aggregate level. The agricultural, socio-economic and environmental factors are considered sufficient for creating undesired states of food production and the agricultural resources. The analytical vehicle of this study is a System Dynamics model incorporating well-known logic of the economic and ecological processes in an agrarian economy consisting of a corporate sector and a self-employed sector practicing three production modes (commercial, renting, and self-employed). The validity of the model is discussed on the basis of the soundness of its structure, the logical consistency of its assumptions, and the empirical context of its behavior. Further, the behavioral insensitivity of the model to parameters changes 1.s examined on the basis of testing the model behavior when reasonable changes in key parameters are made. Computer simulation is used not only for testing the model, but also for experimenting with the model with an aim to assess various policies concerned and to identify a policy package to drive the system to desired goals. The study is based on the three key propositions. The first is inequality of distribution of agricultural resources and income distribution under the assumption of a fixed economy with fragmented financial markets. The second is degradation of agriculture-related resource base under population growth and hence increasing production intensity on both marginal and non-marginal land resources. The third is that conservation/improvement of agriculture-related resources is both income- and ownership-related. The study concludes that well-intended development policies, which do not take into account farmers' roles considerably affecting the care of environment and agriculture-related resources, are unlikely to yield the desirable goals of food adequacy, social equity and environmental conservation. These policies will be successful, however, if a critical institutional policy which puts a heavy cost on the separation of ownership from cultivatorship and conservatorship is simultaneously implemented, and then serve as facilitating policies to speed up the system's convergence to the desired steady states. It should be noted that while a part of this study is adapted from Saeed's earlier researches in the framework of income distribution without considering environmental dimension, the conclusions from this broader framework are in line with the ones from him. -iv- In short, the study, which proposes a general framework for agricultural production development and agricultural resources management, focuses on the urgent need to create institutional mechanisms strongly supporting indirect land redisu'ibution to the self-employed sector, along with extending technological, financial, and land management services to the sector, and with lowering birth rate. A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Technical Science, School of Engineering and Technology Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1992 Agricultural resources Management Asian Institute of Technology. http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B16665 http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B16665 041198 20260818114152.0