03603nas a2200265 a 450000500170000000800410001703500150005810000310007324500610010426000670016530000350023249000270026750200570029450001380035152023920048965000340288170000380291570000450295370000470299870000440304571000660308971000570315581000590321285600660327120260817162352.0170217s2014    th uu|m rtt   0|  a1eng d  a.b1217922x1 aHassanyar, Mohammad Hassan10aAnalysis of historical and future climate of Afghanistan  aPathum Thani, Thailand :bAsian Institute of Technology,c2014  a103 leaves :bill. (some col.)1 aThesis ;vno. WM-14-13  aThesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014  aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master ofSciences inWater Engineering and Management   aClimate  change  may  put  challenge  on  the  livelihood  of  Afghanistan{u2019}s  people.  The geographical  location  of  country  is  mountainous  and  arid  this  make  vulnerable  due  to changing  climate.  To address  the  issues,the  trend  analysis  of  past  maximum,  minimum temperatures   and   precipitation   calculated   by   Mann-Kendall   test. Temperature   trend indicates  the  large  range  warming,  the Tmax  and  Tmintrend  obtained0.05 C̊/Yr  and 0.07 C̊/Yr  over  period  of  1961-2012.  At  the  seasonal  basis  the  autumn  experienced  more warming  and  followed  by  summer  and  spring.  The  precipitation  decreasing  trend  not significant.  However,  the  seasonal  pattern  of  precipitations  showed  decreasing  at  spring and  increasing  at  the  summer.And  future  climate  signals  analyzed  by  SimCLIM  climate model   with   ensemble   of   40   GCMsunder   Representative   concentration   Pathways (RCP).Thefuture  projection  ofTmaxin  context  of mid  climate  sensitivity underRCP2.6 the  positive  trend  is  projected  1.13 C̊, 1.41 C̊ and 1.43 C̊, for  case  of  RCP  4.5  projected rate of increasingranges 1.18 C̊, 2.18 C̊ and 2.56 C̊, also forworse scenario RCP 8.5 the rate of increasingprojected 1.44 C̊,3.28 C̊ and 5.45 C̊  early, mid and late projections time respectively. However, TminunderRCP2.6 scenarioprojectedto increase1.03  C̊, 1.29 C̊ and  1.3 C̊,  under RCP  4.5  projected  increase  are  ranges  1.13 C̊,  1.99 C̊  and  2.34 C̊, furthermore, atworstscenario RCP 8.5 the rate of warming projected 1.30 C̊, 3.0 C̊ and 4.98 C̊  at  the  periodof  2030,  2060  and  2090respectively.  Theprecipitation  future projection showed negative trend but the values of decreasing are significant for Helmand river  basin  for  instance, the  percentage  of  change  at  Helmand  and  Kandahar  stations showed decreasing rate 3.80%, 4.70% and 4.80% for 2030s, 2060s and2090s respectively for  RCP2.6.  Under RCP4.5  scenario  projected  decreasing  trend  of  4.20%,  4.80%  and 8.50%   for   2030s,   2060s   and   2090s   respectively. UnderRCP8.5   scenario   the   rate decreasing are projected 4.90%, 11% and 18.20% for 2030s, 2060s and 2090s respectively. However,   the   stations   are   located   in   northern   river   basin   shows   positive   trend   of precipitation but not significant 0aClimatic changeszAfghanistan1 aBabel, Mukand Singh,eChairperson1 aShrestha, Sangam,eExamination Committee1 aKawasaki, Akiyuki, eExamination Committee0 aSutat Waseekul, eExamination Committee2 aAIT-Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE), eScholarship donor 2 aAfghanistan Partnership Project, eScholarship donor2 aAsian Institute of Technology.tThesis ;vno. WM-14-13  3Full-Textuhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B04391