04429nas a2200409 a 4500 20260817163550.0 110511s2010 th uu|m rtt 0| a1eng d .b12095230 AIT Thesis no.WM-09-05 Bhusal, Shyam Prasad Assessment of future climate and its impact on streamflow : a case study of Bagmati Basin, Nepal Pathum Thani, Thailand : Asian Institute of Technology, 2010 107 leaves : ill. Thesis ; no. WM-09-05 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2009 Climate Change is a global phenomenon but the trend and extent of its impact varies in spatial and temporal scale demanding local scale studies. Bagmati river basin in Nepal is currently facing the problems of water stress and floods which may be aggravated due to climate change. This research is carried out to quantify the future changes in climate and its impact on streamflow in the Bagmati Basin. The research methodology includes GCM selection and downscaling of GCM data, extreme climate indices analysis and assessment of future water availability under SRES scenarios A2 and B2. Out of five GCMs (Hadcm3, CSIRO, CCSR/NIES, CGCM3 and ECHAM4) analyzed, Hadcm3 provided statistically better results to represent present day precipitation while in case of temperature all GCMs show statistically reliable performance. Downscaling with SDSM model has well estimated both mean and extreme values of temperature whereas it could not estimate the extreme events of precipitation but the mean daily precipitation result is reliable. Scenario A2 indicates the diminish in precipitation amount during the dry period and increase during the wet period. However, scenario B2 shows increase during both periods. Maximum and minimum temperature extremes are increasing with higher rates during summer than the winter indicating more severe impact of warming during summer. The increase in heavy precipitation events R20 (number of days with precipitation > 20mm), R35 (number of days with precipitation > 35mm) and Rx5day (maximum 5-day precipitation) will lead to increase in frequency and magnitude of floods in the future. Similarly, the increase on the trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) reflects the occurrence of more intense droughts in the future. The hydrological simulation shows that according to scenario A2, water availability will be decreased during pre-monsoon period leading to increase in water stress during dry period while flow will increase during monsoon period indicating increase in flood problems. However, scenario B2 shows increase in water availability during both wet and dry periods. With these expected changes on future climate and water availability in the basin, appropriate adaptation and management strategies are to be developed. Climatic changes Evaluation Nepal Bagmati Basin Streamflow Evaluation Nepal Bagmati Basin Babel, Mukand Singh, Chairperson Perret, Sylvain Roger, Examination Committee Clemente, Roberto S., Examination Committee Gupta, Ashim Das, Examination Committee Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-09-05 Full-Text http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B04324 .b12095230 mnait u 240403 0 110511 m a u 0 000:001:PDF:b1209523:000636:0:0:0:0:0:0 Abstract-AIT Thesis no.WM-09-05 n mnait mnarc 22 40 Barcode : 30050120573885 CREATED : 2014-03-28 RECORD # : i12781381 LPATRON : 1026944 LCHKIN : 2017-06-29 # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 2 TOT CHKOUT : 15 TOT RENEW : 19 Barcode : 30050120230692 CREATED : 2016-05-04 RECORD # : i12924118 LPATRON : 0 LCHKIN : - # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 0 TOT CHKOUT : 0 TOT RENEW : 0 9122 9122 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnait 2026-08-17 50.00 0 AIT Thesis no.WM-09-05 30050120573885 2026-08-17 16:35:50 3 2026-08-17 22 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnarc 2026-08-17 0 AIT Thesis no.WM-09-05 30050120230692 2026-08-17 16:35:50 2026-08-17 40