03723nas|a2200409 i 4500 20260818175016.0 121095s1985 th uu m rtt 00| a1eng d .b10535184 AIT RSPR no. IE-85-2 Arif, Muhammad Tasrif Prospects of growth in an oil dependent economy : the case of Indonesia Bangkok : Asian Institute of Technology, 1985 163 p. Research studies project report ; no. IE-85-2 A research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology Research Studies Project Report (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1985 Oil revenues give Indonesia an opportunity for rapid economic growth. The revenues provide financial resources to stimulate the economy, increase Indonesian Government spending, increase investment, and import the necessary goods and services to accelerate economic growth. However, this rapid economic growth is followed by a rapid increase in domestic oil consumption that is aggravated by an oil subsidy, leading to increasing dependence on oil resources. When the oil runs out, the Indonesian economy will go through a transition into an oil-independent era. This study is an attempt to understand the process and the mechanisms of economic growth in an oil dependent economy, in particular the Indonesian economy from 1970 to 2030. In this study, a generic system dynamics model is constructed to analyze the transition. The model is developed based on a common macroeconomics model and considers market clearing mechanisms. The model also represents the physical structure of the economy and the decision making structure of the various actors in the system. Model simulation is used to examine alternative policies to achieve a smooth transition. In order to achieve a smooth transition, four main policy instruments are considered in this study. Those policies are (1) increase government spending, (2) encourage investment, (3) restrict imports and expand non-oil exports, and (4) introduce flexible specialization. The first three policies have been proposed and implemented in developing countries for improving their economic conditions over the past few decades. Among those policies, the study shows that in the long run the technological environment which is represented by the fourth policy is the most important one to sustain growth. Oil industries Indonesia Saeed, Khalid, Chairperson Vrat, Prem, Examination Committee Frausum, Yves G. Van, Examination Committee ASEAN-USAID , Scholarship Donor Asian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. IE-85-2 Full-Text http://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B19872 .b10535184 mnait y 240404 2 951012 m a y 0 mnait mnait mnarc 20 40 Barcode : 30050003110334 CREATED : 1995-10-15 RECORD # : i10671675 LPATRON : 0 LCHKIN : - # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 0 TOT CHKOUT : 0 TOT RENEW : 0 Barcode : 30050003110326 CREATED : 1995-10-15 RECORD # : i10671687 LPATRON : 0 LCHKIN : - # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 0 TOT CHKOUT : 0 TOT RENEW : 0 Barcode : 30050160109871 CREATED : 2016-08-04 RECORD # : i12931986 LPATRON : 0 LCHKIN : - # RENEWALS : 0 # OVERDUE : 0 IUSE3 : 0 TOT CHKOUT : 0 TOT RENEW : 0 95646 95646 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnait 2026-08-18 0 AIT RSPR no. IE-85-2 30050003110334 2026-08-18 17:50:16 1 2026-08-18 20 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnait 2026-08-18 0 AIT RSPR no. IE-85-2 30050003110326 2026-08-18 17:50:16 2 2026-08-18 20 0 0 0 0 MAIN MAIN mnarc 2026-08-18 0 AIT RSPR no. IE-85-2 30050160109871 2026-08-18 17:50:16 2026-08-18 40