000			03332nam a2200409 4500
005			20260818222459.0
008			250998s1984 th r 0000|0 eng d
035			_a.b10639457
099		9	_aAIT Thesis no. ET-84-5
100	1		_aSamaliarachchi, Lalith Ajutha
245	1	0	_aStochastic load flow study for the Sri Lanka power system
260			_aBangkok : _bAsian Institute of Technology, _c1984
300			_a71 p.
490	1		_aThesis ; _vno. ET-84-5
500			_aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources & Development
502			_aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1984
520			_aThe Testing of a power system tor each decision alternative is a computationally burdensome step. Change over from the currently established deterministic criteria to stochastic means would be advantageous . In this study, a short term load forecast for the Sri Lanka power system is reasonable estimated, considering its past trends of growth, using the method of least squares. The degree of uncertainty is quantified by the forecast variance. The propagation of the uncertainty of input variables to the output variables of the power system is determined, by the solution of the conventional load flow, followed by a series of noniterative steps. This was done by least squares estimation proposed by Do pazo et al. The final outcome of the study, is the predetermination of the expected values of the system responses and its possible deviations, due to the forecast inaccuracies of loads and generator outages, at their respective nodes. An algorithm and a programme have been developed and the applicability of the method in short term transmission planning and design is demonstrated, by using the Sri Lanka power network around the year 1990, as an example. Results are obtained and presented in a compact form in terms of the expected values and confidence intervals. The system security is also considered and certain suggestions are made with regard to the protection of the system.
650	1	0	_aElectric power systems _xSri Lanka _xLoad dispatching
700	1		_aLucas, N.J.D., _eChairperson
700	1		_aRadok, Rainer, _eExamination Committee
700	1		_aSauter-Servaes, Florian, _eExamination Committee
710	2		_aThe Commission of the European Communities, _eScholarship Donor
810	2		_aAsian Institute of Technology. _tThesis ; _vno. ET-84-5
856			_3Full-Text _uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B20840
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