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035 _a.b10234391
099 9 _aAIT Thesis no. ET-90-14
100 1 _aDhungel, Himesh
245 1 0 _aElectrical load forecasting in Nepal :
_bapplication of time series and simulation methods
260 _aBangkok :
_bAsian Institute of Technology,
_c1990
300 _a120 p.
490 1 _aThesis ;
_vno. ET-90-14
500 _aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology
502 _aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1990
520 _aThis study deals with the problem of short term and long term peak load forecasting in Nepal. The stochastic time series Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) method has been used to forecast load in the hourly, daily, weekly and the monthly time horizons. In the paper, the bivariate transfer function model with temperature as an explanatory variable is used to forecast the hourly peak demand of a small area. A comparison of the transfer function model and the ARIMA model (to forecast hourly demand) found that transfer function model performed better than the ARIMA model. The long term simulation type of forecasting model called Model for Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED) is used to forecast the annual pealed load and the system load curves. The analysis and simulation of t h e system load curves under different hypothetical conditions suggested that load management strategies could possibly implemented (in Nepal) to reduce the peak load in the intermediate term. The case study was carried out for the integrated electric system of Nepal Electricity Authority.
650 0 _aElectric power consumption
_xNepal
_xForecasting
700 1 _aShrestha, Ram M.,
_eChairperson
700 1 _aLapillonne, Bruno,
_eExamination Committee
700 1 _aNagarur, Nagendra N.,
_eExamination Committee
710 2 _aThe Government of Australia,
_eScholarship Donor
810 2 _aAsian Institute of Technology.
_tThesis ;
_vno. ET-90-14
856 _3Full-Text
_uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B18318
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