000			04260nas|a2200409 i 4500
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008			020228s2001 th u m rtt 00| a1eng d
035			_a.b1184792x
099		9	_aAIT Thesis no. ET-01-8
100	1		_aPrabaaharan, Sinnathamby
245	1	0	_aAnalyses of risks in independent power production : _bcase of a biomass co-generation project in Thailand
260			_aBangkok : _bAsian Institute of Technology, _c2001
300			_a92 leaves
490	1		_aThesis ; _vno. ET-01-8
500			_aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development
502			_aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2001
520			_aThis study analyzes the risks associated in investment on iice husk fuelled cogeneration project and power purchase contract between utility and independent power producer. In this study, option valuation approach has been used to analyze the risk in investing on a rice husk fuelled co-generation plant in the presence of alternative technologies. Different cases have been considered when the important cost parameters of the cogeneration plant were changed, and the risk associated with them estimated quantitatively. Also, the optimal timing and option prices of the foregone options have been estimated. The study has revealed that when the annul price escalation rate of rice husk is 4%, cost of capital is 1200 $/kW, if the va1iable operating and maintenance cost exceeds 3.0 mills/kWh, then the cogeneration plant will not be selected in least cost generation expansion scenario. The study has suggested if there is no revenue from rice husk ash, then it will be very high risk to invest on this type of technology now and even when the price of ash is 50 $/ton for above case, the investment has to be delayed for 4.5 years. Sensitivity analysis has revealed that if the revenue from ash reaches 225 $/ton, then the investment will be completely risked free. This study has analyzed the risk sharing between utility and independent power producer in the context of incentive contract. The coefficient of variability of the probability distribution of expected net profit of Independent Power Producer was used as a quantitative measure of risk. For each sharing rate, corresponding coefficient of variability was found using Monte-Carlo simulation. And fuel price, fuel escalation rate, plant heat rate, variable O&M cost, capacity factor, availability factor were considered as uncertain parameters. The sensitivity analysis of uncertain parameters shows that the availability factor affects the probability distributions of the expected net profit highly. The capacity factor is the second larger sensitive parameter on the net profit. The revenue from rice husk ash sale creates considerable uncertainty on expected net profit. If there is no revenue from ash, then it is highly risky to make a contract. When the sharing rate equals to 0.5, the contract will be almost risk free. The increment in discount, tax rates and decrement in return on equity increase the uncertainty about the net profit of IPP. i
650	1	0	_aBiomass energy _xThailand
650	1	0	_aRisk management _xThailand
700	1		_aShrestha, Ram M., _eChairperson
700	1		_aPacudan, Romeo B., _eExamination Committee
700	0		_aSurapong Chiraratananon, _eExamination Committee
700	1		_aLacrosse, Ludovic, _eExamination committee
710	2		_aThe Govenunent of France - AIT, _eScholarship donor
810	2		_aAsian Institute of Technology. _tThesis ; _vno. ET-01-8
856			_3Full-Text _uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B08026
907			_a.b1184792x _bmnait _cu
902			_a240329
998			_b0 _c020228 _dm _ea _fu _g0
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