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035 _a.b10290503
099 9 _aAIT Thesis no. 1164
100 1 _aKhan, Md. Safiqur Rahman
245 1 0 _aForecasting non-renewable energy resources consumption pattern
260 _aBangkok :
_bAsian Institute of Technology,
_c1977
300 _a112 p.
490 1 _aThesis ;
_vno. 1164
500 _aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering of the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand
502 _aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1977
520 _aThe primary aim of this study is to make a forecast regarding nonrenewable energy resources consumption pattern. To attain this objective the study has been divided into two parts. In the first part, consumption of energy, derived from different sources for the last 25 years has been analyzed. These analysis includes the consumption of the World as a whole, developing countries of different regions and some other selected countries. It has been found that energy consumption has been growing exponentially in each case. But this exponential growth cannot continue for infinite period as the reserves are finite. Hence, an assumption has been made that, future energy consumption will depend upon the past trend, as well as the extent of remaining reserves. Using this assumption, an empirical model has been developed ·in the second part of this study, to forecast the future energy consumption of each individual primary energy source (including coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear energy). In order to retain the dynamic nature of the forecast, the system dynamics methodology has been used. Since the reserve estimates vary from estimator to estimator, four sets of reserve estimates were used for forecasting with this model. The model' s forecasts are finally compared with other forecast.
650 0 _aEnergy consumption
700 1 _aSharif, M. N.,
_eChairperson
700 0 _aPakorn Adulbhan,
_eExamination Committee
700 0 _aTechapun Raengkhum,
_eExamination Committee
710 2 _aGovernment of The Netherlands,
_eScholarship Donor
810 2 _aAsian Institute of Technology.
_tThesis ;
_vno. 1164
856 _3Full-Text
_uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B23199
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