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008 170217s2014 th uu|m rtt 0| a1eng d
035 _a.b1217922x
099 9 _aAIT Thesis no.WM-14-13
100 1 _aHassanyar, Mohammad Hassan
245 1 0 _aAnalysis of historical and future climate of Afghanistan
260 _aPathum Thani, Thailand :
_bAsian Institute of Technology,
_c2014
300 _a103 leaves :
_bill. (some col.)
490 1 _aThesis ;
_vno. WM-14-13
502 _aThesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014
500 _aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master ofSciences inWater Engineering and Management
520 _aClimate change may put challenge on the livelihood of Afghanistan{u2019}s people. The geographical location of country is mountainous and arid this make vulnerable due to changing climate. To address the issues,the trend analysis of past maximum, minimum temperatures and precipitation calculated by Mann-Kendall test. Temperature trend indicates the large range warming, the Tmax and Tmintrend obtained0.05 C̊/Yr and 0.07 C̊/Yr over period of 1961-2012. At the seasonal basis the autumn experienced more warming and followed by summer and spring. The precipitation decreasing trend not significant. However, the seasonal pattern of precipitations showed decreasing at spring and increasing at the summer.And future climate signals analyzed by SimCLIM climate model with ensemble of 40 GCMsunder Representative concentration Pathways (RCP).Thefuture projection ofTmaxin context of mid climate sensitivity underRCP2.6 the positive trend is projected 1.13 C̊, 1.41 C̊ and 1.43 C̊, for case of RCP 4.5 projected rate of increasingranges 1.18 C̊, 2.18 C̊ and 2.56 C̊, also forworse scenario RCP 8.5 the rate of increasingprojected 1.44 C̊,3.28 C̊ and 5.45 C̊ early, mid and late projections time respectively. However, TminunderRCP2.6 scenarioprojectedto increase1.03 C̊, 1.29 C̊ and 1.3 C̊, under RCP 4.5 projected increase are ranges 1.13 C̊, 1.99 C̊ and 2.34 C̊, furthermore, atworstscenario RCP 8.5 the rate of warming projected 1.30 C̊, 3.0 C̊ and 4.98 C̊ at the periodof 2030, 2060 and 2090respectively. Theprecipitation future projection showed negative trend but the values of decreasing are significant for Helmand river basin for instance, the percentage of change at Helmand and Kandahar stations showed decreasing rate 3.80%, 4.70% and 4.80% for 2030s, 2060s and2090s respectively for RCP2.6. Under RCP4.5 scenario projected decreasing trend of 4.20%, 4.80% and 8.50% for 2030s, 2060s and 2090s respectively. UnderRCP8.5 scenario the rate decreasing are projected 4.90%, 11% and 18.20% for 2030s, 2060s and 2090s respectively. However, the stations are located in northern river basin shows positive trend of precipitation but not significant
650 0 _aClimatic changes
_zAfghanistan
700 1 _aBabel, Mukand Singh,
_eChairperson
700 1 _aShrestha, Sangam,
_eExamination Committee
700 1 _aKawasaki, Akiyuki,
_eExamination Committee
700 0 _aSutat Waseekul,
_eExamination Committee
710 2 _aAIT-Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE),
_eScholarship donor
710 2 _aAfghanistan Partnership Project,
_eScholarship donor
810 2 _aAsian Institute of Technology.
_tThesis ;
_vno. WM-14-13
856 _3Full-Text
_uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B04391
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945 _lmnait
945 _lmnait
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942 _c20
942 _c40
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