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008 011098s1998 th r 0000|0 eng d
035 _a.b11724523
041 _aengfre
099 9 _aAIT RSPR no. SM-98-13
100 0 _aThanh Obmalay
245 1 0 _aApplication des modeles de series chronologiques dans la prevision des ventes :
_ble cas de la Compagnie Lao Brewery Co., Ltd.
260 _aBangkok :
_bAsian Institute of Technology,
_c1998
300 _a60 leaves
490 1 _aResearch studies project report ;
_vno. SM-98-13
502 _aResearch Studies Project Report (M.B.A.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1998
500 _aWith English abstract
500 _aMemoire de recherche soum1s pour l'obtention du diplOme de Master of Business Administration, School of Management
520 _aThe forecasts are projections that are based on the flow pattern of past figures. These are highly important tools for management and line personnel in their daily course of activities and decision making. The purpose of this research is to show managers in Lao companies some of the methods which may help them to improve their forecasts. This research follows three main principles: first, that the level of mathematics and statistics has been kept to that considered as appropriate to people whose interest is in obtaining forecasts for practical purpose. Secondly, that the emphasis is on the simpler and more widely used procedures, with some modifications provided that the level of precision must be satisfactory, using sales data of LAO BREWERY CO., LTD as the case study. The third principle is the critical approach that is essential in selecting the most suitable method from the many which are available. The test of data shows that the past sales figures of LAO BREWERY CO., LTD behave randomly with an upward trend, and have no seasonality. The direct use of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Linear Regression is inefficient because they cannot keep track of the presence of randomness. The corrected methods suggested in this research seem to give good results. Holt-Winters, Decomposition, and Box-Jenkins methods are not recommended due to their complexities and seem not accessible to Lao managers' skills. The research has dealt with short-term forecasts and time senes, while the long-term forecasts and causal methods have not been taken into account.
650 1 0 _aSales forecasting
_zLaos
700 1 _aGupta, Joyti,
_eChairperson
700 1 _aSpeece, Mark W.,
_eExamination Committee
700 1 _aLefevre, Thierry,
_eExamination Committee
710 2 _aGovernment France,
_eScholarship donor
810 2 _aAsian Institute of Technology.
_tResearch studies project report ;
_vno. SM-98-13
856 _3Full-Text
_uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B12987
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