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008 951012s1993 th u m rtt 00| a1eng d
035 _a.b10087199
099 9 _aAIT Thesis no. IR-92-21
100 1 _aGul, Riaz
245 1 4 _aThe application of a back propagation model to daily flow forecasting
260 _aBangkok :
_bAsian Institute of Technology,
_c1993
300 _a103 leaves +
_e1 online resource
490 1 _aThesis ;
_vno. IR-92-21
500 _aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development
502 _aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1993
520 _aThe present study explores the applicability of Back propagation (Neural network) model to the problem of daily flow forecasting which is of great importance from the viewpoint of water resources development and planning. Discharge and rainfall data for Nan River Basin, in the periods of 1985-1988 and 1989 were used in calibration and verification respectively. Multiple Linear Regression model is also used for the same data set for comparison purposes. From a careful comparative study, it was found that back propagation results in better forecasts compared to the multiple linear regression model. Several conclusions can be drawn from this study. Firstly the rainfall data alone could not be adequate in forecasting river flow in the Nan River Basin. The forecasts were significantly improved when discharge data at the station under consideration were included in the rainfall data. It was found that discharge at the station under consideration is a function of past discharges at that station, discharges at the upstream stations and rainfall at the upstream stations. The regression model is simple while the back propagation model is more complicated and time consuming.
650 0 _aHydrological forecasting
700 1 _aLoof, Rainer,
_eChairperson
700 0 _aNophadol In-na,
_eCo-chairperson
700 1 _aHuynh, Ngoc Phien,
_eExamination Committee
700 1 _aOnta, Pushpa Raj,
_eExamination committee
700 1 _aHjorth, Peder,
_eExamination committee
710 2 _aGovernment of Denmark,
_eScholarship donor
810 2 _aAsian Institute of Technology.
_tThesis ;
_vno. IR-92-21
856 _3Full-Text
_uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B16987
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