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008			110511s2010 th uu|m rtt 0| a1eng d
035			_a.b12095230
099		9	_aAIT Thesis no.WM-09-05
100	1		_aBhusal, Shyam Prasad
245	1	0	_aAssessment of future climate and its impact on streamflow : _ba case study of Bagmati Basin, Nepal
260			_aPathum Thani, Thailand : _bAsian Institute of Technology, _c2010
300			_a107 leaves : _bill.
490	1		_aThesis ; _vno. WM-09-05
500			_aA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management
502			_aThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2009
520			_aClimate Change is a global phenomenon but the trend and extent of its impact varies in spatial and temporal scale demanding local scale studies. Bagmati river basin in Nepal is currently facing the problems of water stress and floods which may be aggravated due to climate change. This research is carried out to quantify the future changes in climate and its impact on streamflow in the Bagmati Basin. The research methodology includes GCM selection and downscaling of GCM data, extreme climate indices analysis and assessment of future water availability under SRES scenarios A2 and B2. Out of five GCMs (Hadcm3, CSIRO, CCSR/NIES, CGCM3 and ECHAM4) analyzed, Hadcm3 provided statistically better results to represent present day precipitation while in case of temperature all GCMs show statistically reliable performance. Downscaling with SDSM model has well estimated both mean and extreme values of temperature whereas it could not estimate the extreme events of precipitation but the mean daily precipitation result is reliable. Scenario A2 indicates the diminish in precipitation amount during the dry period and increase during the wet period. However, scenario B2 shows increase during both periods. Maximum and minimum temperature extremes are increasing with higher rates during summer than the winter indicating more severe impact of warming during summer. The increase in heavy precipitation events R20 (number of days with precipitation > 20mm), R35 (number of days with precipitation > 35mm) and Rx5day (maximum 5-day precipitation) will lead to increase in frequency and magnitude of floods in the future. Similarly, the increase on the trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) reflects the occurrence of more intense droughts in the future. The hydrological simulation shows that according to scenario A2, water availability will be decreased during pre-monsoon period leading to increase in water stress during dry period while flow will increase during monsoon period indicating increase in flood problems. However, scenario B2 shows increase in water availability during both wet and dry periods. With these expected changes on future climate and water availability in the basin, appropriate adaptation and management strategies are to be developed.
650		0	_aClimatic changes _xEvaluation _zNepal _zBagmati Basin
650		0	_aStreamflow _xEvaluation _zNepal _zBagmati Basin
700	1		_aBabel, Mukand Singh, _eChairperson
700	1		_aPerret, Sylvain Roger, _eExamination Committee
700	1		_aClemente, Roberto S., _eExamination Committee
700	1		_aGupta, Ashim Das, _eExamination Committee
810	2		_aAsian Institute of Technology. _tThesis ; _vno. WM-09-05
856			_3Full-Text _uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B04324
907			_a.b12095230 _bmnait _cu
902			_a240403
998			_b0 _c110511 _dm _ea _fu _g0
962			_a000:001:PDF:b1209523:000636:0:0:0:0:0:0 _tAbstract-AIT Thesis no.WM-09-05 _vn
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