000			03723nas|a2200409 i 4500
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008			121095s1985 th uu m rtt 00| a1eng d
035			_a.b10535184
099		9	_aAIT RSPR no. IE-85-2
100	1		_aArif, Muhammad Tasrif
245	1	0	_aProspects of growth in an oil dependent economy : _bthe case of Indonesia
260			_aBangkok : _bAsian Institute of Technology, _c1985
300			_a163 p.
490	1		_aResearch studies project report ; _vno. IE-85-2
500			_aA research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology
502			_aResearch Studies Project Report (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1985
520			_aOil revenues give Indonesia an opportunity for rapid economic growth. The revenues provide financial resources to stimulate the economy, increase Indonesian Government spending, increase investment, and import the necessary goods and services to accelerate economic growth. However, this rapid economic growth is followed by a rapid increase in domestic oil consumption that is aggravated by an oil subsidy, leading to increasing dependence on oil resources. When the oil runs out, the Indonesian economy will go through a transition into an oil-independent era. This study is an attempt to understand the process and the mechanisms of economic growth in an oil dependent economy, in particular the Indonesian economy from 1970 to 2030. In this study, a generic system dynamics model is constructed to analyze the transition. The model is developed based on a common macroeconomics model and considers market clearing mechanisms. The model also represents the physical structure of the economy and the decision making structure of the various actors in the system. Model simulation is used to examine alternative policies to achieve a smooth transition. In order to achieve a smooth transition, four main policy instruments are considered in this study. Those policies are (1) increase government spending, (2) encourage investment, (3) restrict imports and expand non-oil exports, and (4) introduce flexible specialization. The first three policies have been proposed and implemented in developing countries for improving their economic conditions over the past few decades. Among those policies, the study shows that in the long run the technological environment which is represented by the fourth policy is the most important one to sustain growth.
650		0	_aOil industries _xIndonesia
700	1		_aSaeed, Khalid, _eChairperson
700	1		_aVrat, Prem, _eExamination Committee
700	1		_aFrausum, Yves G. Van, _eExamination Committee
710	2		_aASEAN-USAID , _eScholarship Donor
810	2		_aAsian Institute of Technology. _tResearch studies project report ; _vno. IE-85-2
856			_3Full-Text _uhttp://203.159.5.9/ait-thesis/detail.php?q=B19872
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