Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1992

A thesis s ubmitted in the partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of the Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology

Shanghai is a changing and developing city . The transport is essential to develop Shanghai . But , the performance of existing transportation system in Sh anghai is declining, which has hindered t h e rapid development of Shanghai. Therefore, the improvement of Sh anghai traffic condit ion has become an extreme l y ·urgent and important matter to Shangha i Metropolis. Th is study an alyzed the travel c hoice behavior in Shanghai. The characteristics of trip makers and performance of Shanghai transportation system were examined. The modal split in Shanghai i nner city were estimated by u sing multinomial logit model. The effects of various relevant factors and new transportation policy on moda l choice behavior were analyzed. Th e overall of this study i s to attempt to fi nd out or provide an econ omical and effective measure (or transportat ion policy) to improve Shanghai traffic conditions for Sha nghai government. The methodology consisted of conventional home interview s urvey and multinomia l logit model of disaggregate approach which was applied to analyze a nd measure the effects of various factors and new transportation policy on trave l c hoice behavior and predict the moda l split in Shanghai inner c ity . Results indicated the following factors extremely influenced the modal choice behavior. Those factors were travel time , waiting time , cost , sex, income, household s i ze , bicycle ownership and monthly bus ticket ownership . Resu l t on modal split in the inner city s howed 56.85% of total trip modes by bus, 32 . 26% by bicyc l e and 10.89% by walking. Finally, ana l ysis of transportation policy indicated that bus s hare will dominate over bicycle on the order of 6 to l after the i mplementation of the n ew policy (introducing bus exclusive system into Shanghai) and Shanghai traffic conditions will be improved due to the decrease of bicycle use. Local government should give a high priority to invest the exclusive busway system.